Business-case sensitivity analysis on AST SpaceMobile

An integral part of satellite constellation analysis is recognizing that commercial and architectural characteristics are deeply interdependent.

The following article by Michael Robuck U.S. Editor, Mobile World Live at GSMA includes valuable data points for NCAT users interested in conducting a business-case sensitivity analysis on AST SpaceMobile.

• US FCC licences next-gen AST satellite test

While I haven't performed such an analysis myself on AST SpaceMobile below are a few recommendations on how to conduct such assessment. Analysys Mason 's clients can combine several modules of the NCAT toolset to derive key forward-looking architectural and financial metrics and answer critical questions, such as:

• What is the capital cost per usable Mbps, and what level of breakeven incremental revenue should be derived from the service ?
• What is the uplink and downlink capacity per allowed frequency channel?
• How many satellites are required to ensure continuous connectivity in a specific region?

The Non-GEO Constellations Analysis Toolkit (NCAT) is designed for performance and business-case analysis, with deep integration across technical and commercial dimensions.

Recommended NCAT tools for this assessment:

1. Settings (Tool #1) Use this to select and modify the orbital parameters of AST SpaceMobile satellite shells (shells 10, 11, and 12 are pre-loaded in the NCAT database). You can use the default Block-2 satellite configuration or customize the orbital characteristics and minimum smartphone look-angle requirements as needed.
2. Visibility (Tool #2) This lets you place user locations on the map and run an accelerated 24-hour simulation to generate availability and wait-time statistics. While services like IoT and messaging can tolerate some delay, broadband requires high availability - this tool helps assess suitability.
3. D2D Channel Capacity Calculator (Tool #16) Utilize FCC public filings to extract technical parameters and run LTE channel capacity calculations for uplink and downlink scenarios.
4. Non-GEO Business Case Sensitivity Analysis (Tool #12) Leverage manufacturing and launch cost data mentioned in the Mobile World Live article to run a sensitivity analysis. NCAT allows you to define the probability distribution shape that best fits your scenario.

Additional Notes

You can follow the analytical methodology described in the referenced articles below. If you have any questions or need guidance applying these tools, feel free to reach out to me directly.

1. Example of non-GEO business case sensitivity analysis
2. D2D channel capacity calculations
3. Example calculations of availability and wait coverage times for Starlink D2C and AST:

• Starlink D2C
• AST SpaceMobile

Last but not least:

• If your organization is a subscriber to Analysys Mason’s Satellite-Telecoms Integration Program, I recommend discussing your business assumptions with the program lead ( Lluc Palerm Serra ). This includes evaluating the plausibility of incremental MNO revenue, whether from direct service monetization or from subscriber churn mitigation associated with device-to-device (D2D) connectivity.
• If your organization is a subscriber to Analysys Mason’s Space Infrastructure Program, I recommend discussing the satellite manufacture and launch cost assumptions with the program lead ( Dallas Kasaboski ).

The Non-GEO Constellations Analysis Toolkit (NCAT) is an assembly of easy-to-use analytics models to assess and benchmark LEO and MEO satellite constellations. To learn more about NCAT:

• Watch brief videos on YouTube
• Read use cases here on Linkedin
• Download the NCAT white paper
• Visit the NCAT info page on the Analysys Mason website
• Contact Analysys Mason