Salesforce unboxes its holiday shopping predictions

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While you’re grilling the hot dogs and setting off the fireworks next week, don’t forget the holiday season is just around the corner. And we all know it’s the most magical (and sometimes chaotic) time of the year. 

But don’t let the tinsel tie you up: Salesforce’s Industry Insights team is ready to give you a sneak peek into what this year’s holiday shopping season has in store for retailers. Get ready to unwrap some festive trends and strategies that could make your holiday sales season a total stocking stuffer.

Industry Insider: Caila Schwartz

Everything we know about this year’s holiday shoppers so far…

It’s that time of year again: Retailers are starting to get that holiday feeling. But will sales be naughty or nice? It’s too soon to know for sure, but the best way to prepare is to check out Salesforce’s Industry Insights team’s annual holiday predictions.

Shoppers kicked off the first half of 2025 with the same type of energy as they did in 2024 – cautious, calculated, and weary of looming economic challenges. 

The first quarter’s sales results reflected this mindset. Online sales were essentially flat as consumers continued to wait out price and economic volatility. According to Salesforce research, 51% of shoppers reported they’re currently prioritizing essentials and 49% are pulling back on splurge purchases, a trend reported in 2024 and continuing into the new year. 

The question on everyone’s mind: Is this a sign of the holiday to come? Early Salesforce data indicates that consumers may be turning a corner. Compared to April 2024, 34% of global consumers reported that they are feeling optimistic about the current state of the economy. That’s a 22% increase over last year. 

When it comes to their own personal finances, 27% more consumers reported their financial situations were improving over the last six months. That could be the reason we’re seeing a shift in how they spend their disposable income. 

For example, over the last 12 months, consumers have made savings and investments their #1 priority. But consumers are now saying they’re back to prioritizing spending their disposable incomes on physical goods, followed by savings, with experiences ranking last.

Despite these positive signs, consumers are still cautious. One in three shoppers report they bought less over the past six months, and 66% of all shoppers say that whether they’re buying more, less, or the same, they’re trading down for lower-priced goods. But that’s a 22% decrease from 2024 in the rate of consumers reporting tradedowns. Additionally, the rate of consumers saying they’re buying more grew by 54% over 2024.

There is even more good news. In this era of economic uncertainty, there is also incredible opportunity for consumers and retailers alike thanks to AI. With generative AI services going mainstream back in 2023 to AI agents today, the way consumers interact with the internet and the way that retailers operate is changing rapidly. All of this change is ushering in a new wave of how brands and consumers interact with each other. 

So what does holiday 2025 look like in a time of increasing economic pressure, rapidly changing consumer optimism, and artificial intelligence?

Here are our 2025 holiday shopping predictions:

• Hyper-personalized product discovery is here
• AI agents will boost employee productivity
• Unified commerce experiences will supercharge online and offline sales
• Trade uncertainty will push shoppers to resale, as promotions are cut back
• Price and quality will drive loyalty

Ready for our top tips for getting ahead of each prediction? Read the full blog now…

Retail Checkout

Here are more resources to help you get holiday-ready:

• Discover how AI agents help supercharge shopper loyalty.
• See how to build an ecommerce website that converts.
• Learn 3 tips to make every season your peak holiday season.

Retail Q&A

What topic should we tackle in an upcoming newsletter? Let us know what’s on your mind.

This newsletter was curated by Patricia Staino, Editorial Lead at Salesforce.

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