The Burning Glass Institute

There’s a rising workforce mismatch: 10M new college graduates will join the workforce through 2034, even as the non-college workforce shrinks by 9M. Despite strong demand for blue collar workers and AI's threat to automate white collar work, most net additions to the workforce over the coming decade will be college-educated.   Boomer retirements, tighter immigration policy, and persistently low labor force participation rates are flatlining US workforce growth. But the bigger story is that the composition of supply will be misaligned with demand.    Employers already feel the squeeze for hands-on talent in healthcare support, childcare, construction, and logistics—jobs AI can’t easily replace. These demographic shifts will squeeze what is already a choke point: chronic vacancies in blue-collar and care roles. College-educated women, in particular, will dominate future inflows, while the ranks of non-college women—historically, the backbone of frontline care—shrink faster than any other group.   Accelerating investment into automation and rising wages in response to blue collar talent shortages, and an erosion of the vaunted college wage premium in response to white collar surplus will define the workforce dynamics of the coming decade.   My colleagues at The Burning Glass Institute Gad Levanon and Frank Steemers offer a rich analysis in their latest report, available on https://lnkd.in/epv7ftTp. #economics #economy #highereducation #collegesanduniversities #jobs

America’s labor force is splitting in two. It’s common knowledge that the overall working-age population is barely growing. What’s far less reported, and arguably more consequential, is who is growing. 🔹 Non-college adults (ages 20–64): already in decline, and the contraction accelerates as Boomers without degrees retire. 🔹 College-educated adults: climbing at roughly 1–1.5 % per year through at least 2035, as record-share Gen Z (and soon Gen Alpha) graduates replace less-educated retirees. This compositional pivot reshapes labor supply in more ways than size: • Manual & in-person roles, transportation, production, construction, food service, cleaning, personal care, draw predominantly from the non-college pool. Shrinking supply means tighter hiring pipelines and stronger upward wage pressure. • Knowledge work sees abundant (perhaps excessive) inflows, just as generative AI flattens head-count demand. Implication: Over the next decade, the scarcest resource may not be machine-learning engineers, but dependable hands-on workers. Employers, educators, and policymakers must rethink incentives, training pathways, immigration, and technology adoption accordingly. Thanks Frank Steemers for your great analysis. #labormarkets #highered #immigration #laborshortages

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Houston has the jobs. Houston has the talent. So why are so many workers still being left behind? In a new Houston Chronicle op-ed, our president Matt Sigelman and co-author Steve Kean, CEO of the Greater Houston Partnership, dig into one of the most persistent problems in today’s labor market: the mismatch between the skills employers need and the credentials they still too often demand. This isn’t just Houston’s challenge — it’s a national one. The answer isn’t more degrees. It’s smarter hiring. Through our Jobs That Mobilize initiative, in partnership with Greater Houston Partnership and their employer-led UpSkill Houston initiative, we’re using data to: ✔ Identify strong, upward career paths that don’t require a four-year degree ✔ Pinpoint the skills workers already have ✔ Define the fastest routes to higher pay ✔ Show how targeted training can close the gap These are real opportunities. Early analysis shows that workers who follow these paths can boost their earnings by an average of 15%. That’s not just progress — that’s a strategy for economic growth. No city or country can thrive with so much talent left on the bench. But with the right tools and training, we can build a workforce that’s more inclusive, more resilient, and ready for what’s next. To learn more about the Jobs That Mobilize framework, check out our report: https://lnkd.in/eUjVDaZP 📰 Read the full op-ed in the Houston Chronicle: https://lnkd.in/grsjhxGW #JobsThatMobilize #SkillsBasedHiring #EconomicMobility #HoustonWorkforce #FutureOfWork #BurningGlassInstitute #WorkforceDevelopment #SmarterHiring

Which credentials really deliver value? The Burning Glass Institute’s new Credential Value Index gives the answer.   There are more than 1.1 million credentials in the U.S.—yet most lack clear evidence of value. Our extensive study of the outcomes from completers of over 23,000 of the most common credentials shows that only 12% of these non-degree credentials lead to meaningful wage gains that workers wouldn’t have achieved otherwise.   To help workers, educators, employers, and policymakers navigate this crowded landscape, we’ve launched the Credential Value Index, a first-of-its-kind public tool that evaluates the real-world impact of credentials offered by more than 2,000 providers across the country.   The findings are striking: 📈 Only 1 in 3 credentials meet minimum thresholds for producing measurable outcomes 💰 The top 10% of credentials yield annual wage gains of nearly $5,000 🔄 They also increase the odds of switching into a related occupation by 7x, and getting promoted within a field by 17x   Crucially, outcomes vary significantly, not just between credentials, but even between identical credentials offered by different providers. This means learners can’t rely on reputation or field of study alone. They need evidence that a given credential will help them achieve their goals.   The Credential Value Index is accessible to the public through our Navigator tool, offering side-by-side comparisons of the wage outcomes, top roles and employer destinations, and the skills gained by credential earners.   Explore the tool: https://lnkd.in/e6vAytuz   This work is summarized in a new working paper published in collaboration with the American Enterprise Institute, coauthored by Mark Schneider, Shrinidhi Rao, Scott Spitze, Debbie Wasden, and Matt Sigelman. This amazing work could not have been done without the support of the GitLab Foundation, with another special shout-out to Suzanne Towns! Read the report: https://lnkd.in/eFpAwUVN   We're proud to share this resource with the public, and we hope it will support informed choices, stronger programs, and better outcomes for workers across the country.   #CredentialValueIndex #WorkforceData #CredentialTransparency #Skills #LaborMarketInsights

Headed to DC this week? Join us in person on Thursday evening at AEI, where we will be bringing together national experts to take a hard look at nondegree credentials—what works, what doesn’t, and how we ensure learners get real value from these programs. Matt Sigelman, President of the Burning Glass Institute, and Mark Schneider of AEI will share new research on the real outcomes of nondegree pathways—some deliver on the promise of upward mobility, but many fall short. Following that, a panel of leaders in education, business, and policy will dig into what needs to change. 📅 Thursday, June 5 🕔 5:00–6:15 PM ET, reception to follow 📍 AEI Auditorium | 1789 Massachusetts Ave NW, Washington, DC (Or register to watch online if you can’t make it) Panelists include: Marcus Felder, Blackstone Aimee Guidera, Commonwealth of Virginia's Secretary of Education Jason Tyszko, U.S. Chamber of Commerce Foundation Moderator: Debbie Wasden, Senior Vice President at The Burning Glass Institute If you’re in town, we’d love to see you there! Register here: https://lnkd.in/gKvrRneq #workforcedevelopment #nondegreepathways #highereducation #training #jobs #roi #education #economy #professionaldevelopment #hr #highered

The latest update to the labor supply and demand chart Labor demand—employment plus job openings—is growing slowly. Supply, which includes the labor force plus those outside it who still want a job, continues its steady upward climb. The gap between supply and demand remains small, but it’s starting to widen. In the months ahead, several forces will shape this trajectory: The end of new undocumented immigration may slow the growth of labor supply. AI adoption and a cooling economy could dampen labor demand. Which side will slow faster? The chart also highlights just how exceptionally tight the labor market was in 2021–2022—a period when demand temporarily exceeded supply, creating intense pressure on wages and hiring. #labormarkets #economy #AI #immigration #recruitment

🎓 Are nondegree credentials a smart investment—or a dead end? As policy leaders rethink “college for all,” nondegree credentials have emerged as attractive alternatives, requiring far less time and money to help launch new careers and enabling workers to switch fields or earn promotions. But to date, there has been little research into these credentials’ return on investment.   Join us on Thursday, June 5th, at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, D.C., for an in-depth conversation on the value and impact of nondegree credentials with some of the nation’s top experts. Burning Glass Institute President Matt Sigelman and AEI’s Mark Schneider will unveil new research from The Burning Glass Institute showing that while some credentials do boost earnings and job mobility, many fall short—raising serious questions about outcomes, transparency, and equity. Following their conversation, a panel of education, business, and policy leaders will explore how to ensure learners get real value from these programs. 📅 Thursday, June 5th    🕔 5:00 pm - 6:15 pm ET with reception to follow    📍 AEI, Auditorium, 1789 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20036 or register to watch online    🎙️ Featuring: Marcus Felder, Managing Director, Blackstone Aimee Guidera, Secretary of Education, Commonwealth of Virginia Jason Tyszko, Senior Vice President, U.S. Chamber of Commerce Foundation Moderated by Debbie Wasden, Senior Vice President, The Burning Glass Institute #workforcedevelopment #hr #highereducation #highered #nondegreepathways #roi #economy #education #professionaldevelopment #jobs #training

Today’s students are making strategic choices that align with a fast-changing labor market — but sharp declines in fields like education, social work, and the humanities raise red flags for our society’s future. In the latest BGInsights, Gad Levanon and Tomer Stern explore what shifting college major trends reveal about economic opportunity, societal priorities, and the risks ahead. Read this month's insights on our site: https://lnkd.in/gGTT23qQ

📢 New from Labor Matters Check out the latest article by our Chief Economist, Gad Levanon, and Economist, Mels de Zeeuw. For much of the past 50 years, a bachelor’s degree has been one of the most reliable paths to upward mobility in the U.S.—delivering higher wages, lower unemployment, and stronger career growth. But since 2015, enrollment in four-year colleges has been on the decline, especially among men. While economic factors explain part of this shift, Gad and Mels reveal a surprising and increasingly powerful driver: political attitudes. Their latest analysis explores how partisanship is reshaping the higher education landscape and what it means for the future of the U.S. workforce. Subscribe to their monthly newsletter, Labor Matters, to get more invaluable insights right in your inbox: https://lnkd.in/g42HcXwh https://lnkd.in/gH6YnNer