¿Cómo se puede explicar el significado de un valor p a un público no estadístico?

Imagine you're a detective testing if a coin is fair by flipping it 100 times. You get 60 heads and want to know if this result suggests the coin might be biased. The p-value helps answer this. It represents the probability of getting results at least as extreme as 60 heads, assuming the coin is fair. If the p-value is very small (typically less than 0.05), it suggests that getting 60 heads is very unlikely if the coin is fair, indicating the coin might be biased. If the p-value is large, it means getting 60 heads is quite possible with a fair coin, so there's no strong evidence to believe the coin is biased.

A p-value helps us decide if something unusual is happening with our data. Imagine you are guessing if a coin is fair (it should land on heads and tails equally). If you flip the coin many times and get almost the same number of heads and tails, it's not surprising, so the p-value is high. But if you get way more heads or tails than expected, that's surprising, and the p-value is low. So, a p-value is like a surprise score: high means not surprising, low means very surprising.

Let’s say a Company tests if new packaging boosts sales over current. There are 2 hypothesis we need to understand Null hypothesis: no difference between designs. Calculate p-value: probability of observing sales difference if packaging had no impact. If p-value <= 0.05 means sales difference unlikely by chance if designs were equally effective. Suggests new packaging increased sales. Large p-value > 0.05 means sales difference could easily occur by chance even if designs were equal. No convincing evidence of packaging effect. So if p value is 0.03 which is less than 0.05, business can continue with new packaging design as it’s effective

Ok, you think you have come up with a secret technique, so that every time you shoot a dart to a target, you hit bullseye 99.5% of the time!. If it happens, it would mean whatever you are doing can NOT be a product of "luck" or "randomness".. you are definetly on to something that is unequivocally consistent. How would an observer figure that you are doing something out of the ordinary?: he uses a p-value. The p-value is simply a statistical measure of how LIKELY it is that something you observe is a consequence of luck. Here, the p-value is 0.005 (or 0.5%), so, you are not just being lucky!. The lower its value the merrier!. This is how we probe whether our experiments are looking at something significant, and not just random luck.

Imagine a baseball game where you suspect a player is unusually good at hitting home runs. The null hypothesis is that this player is just average. The p-value is like checking how often an average player would hit as many home runs as this player did in a game. If it's very rare for an average player to hit that many home runs (small p-value), you start to believe this player is indeed special. If it's not rare (large p-value), you think the player might just be average after all.

Imagine you're playing a game with a coin. You want to know if the coin is fair (it has an equal chance of landing heads or tails). You decide to flip the coin 10 times and see what happens. If the coin is fair, you would expect about 5 heads and 5 tails. After flipping the coin 10 times, you get 8 heads and 2 tails. You start to wonder, “Is this coin really fair, or is it just by chance that I got 8 heads?” The p-value helps you understand if your coin-flipping result is something unusual or something that could easily happen by chance. If the p-value is very small (like 0.01 or 1%), it’s very unlikely to get 8 heads if the coin were fair. If the p-value is larger (like 0.5 or 50%), it means it’s quite likely to get 8 heads just by chance.

A p-value tells you how likely it is that the results you observed in your experiment could have happened by random chance if there were no real effect, helping you decide if your findings are significant or just a fluke.

P-value is the probability that the hypothesis is true: A p-value doesn't tell you if your hypothesis is true. Instead, it tells you how likely your results are if the hypothesis is wrong. For example, if you test a new medicine and get a p-value of 0.03, it doesn't mean there's a 97% chance the medicine works. It means there's a 3% chance you'd see the results you got if the medicine didn't work. A small p-value means the effect is large: A small p-value indicates that the result is unlikely to be due to chance, but it doesn't measure the size of the effect. For example, a new diet might show a small p-value, suggesting it’s effective. However, the actual weight loss might be very small and not practically significant.

In summary: the probability of observing a result given a hypothesis (what the p-value tells us) is DIFFERENT from the probability that the hypothesis is true given that a result occurred (what many users of the p-value would like ...). In plain math: Prob(result | hypothesis) ≠ Prob(hypothesis | result). The difference is BIG: interpreting a p-value like the probability of a hypothesis is a common logical error.

A common misconception about p-values is that they tell us the probability that the hypothesis being tested is true, but this isn't correct. Instead, a p-value measures the probability of getting results at least as extreme as the ones observed, assuming that the null hypothesis (usually that there is no effect or no difference) is true. Another misconception is that a p-value can show the size or importance of an effect; it doesn’t. It simply helps indicate whether the observed data is consistent with the null hypothesis. Understanding these points helps in correctly interpreting what p-values signify in studies and experiments.

Let's take 2 examples to understand where p value can have different thresholds and how it impacts: 1. For example, if we are trying to see how many successful operations a surgeon has performed and the p value is 0.01 - 1% chance it is fluke, we're good to go, but if it is 0.1 - 10% - I wouldn't trust my life with that high rate of fluctuation probability. 2. If a Psephologist predicted the results of elections with a p value of 0.1 - I would trust his results because of the historical data and methods he used, especially with the uncertainty of the arena. So, the threshold completely depends on the task, domain and data.

A p-value measures the strength of the evidence against the null hypothesis; for instance, if you get a p-value of 0.03, it means there's a 3% chance that the observed results are due to random chance, implying that the observed effect is likely real.

Imagine you're testing a coin to see if it's fair: 1. Starting Assumption (Null Hypothesis): You assume the coin is fair, meaning it has an equal chance of landing heads or tails. 2. Experiment: You flip the coin 100 times to gather evidence. 3. Outcome: You count how many times it lands on heads and how many times on tails. 4. Strength of Evidence (p-value): The p-value tells you how likely it is to get the observed outcome if the coin is actually fair. - A low p-value (e.g., less than 0.05) means that getting such an extreme result (like 90 heads out of 100 flips) is very unlikely if the coin were fair. - A high p-value means that the observed result (like 52 heads out of 100 flips) is not unusual if the coin were fair.

In a marketing scenario, imagine a company launches a new online ad campaign. Before the campaign, weekly sales averaged $10,000. Following the campaign, sales surged to $12,000 per week. The p-value, a measure of how likely this increase occurred by chance, helps assess the campaign's impact. For instance, if the p-value is 0.02, there's a 2% chance the $2,000 increase happened randomly, indicating the campaign likely boosted sales. Conversely, a p-value of 0.15 suggests a 15% chance the increase was due to chance, leaving uncertainty about the campaign's effectiveness. Therefore, a small p-value suggests real effects, while a large p-value implies randomness.

Suppose you are testing a new drug to see if it lowers blood sugar level more effectively than an existing drug. You set your significance level (α) at 0.05. Null Hypothesis (H0): The new drug has the same effect on blood sugar as the existing drug. Alternative Hypothesis (H1): The new drug has a different effect on blood sugar than the existing drug. After conducting the experiment and analyzing the data, you get a p-value of 0.03. Since 0.03 is less than 0.05, you reject the null hypothesis. This suggests that the new drug likely has a different effect on blood sugar compared to the existing drug.

In research, scientists often set a p-value threshold, usually 0.05, to determine if their results are statistically significant. If the p-value is below this threshold, they consider the results significant enough to support their hypothesis. It's like setting a rule for how strong the evidence must be before you're convinced. However, this threshold isn't strict; it's more of a guideline. Some areas may need stricter thresholds, while others might be more lenient, depending on the context and the impact of making a wrong decision.

Depending on the field you're conducting research, according to literature, the majority of cases will fit under the agreed threshold of 0.05 (or 5%). However, if you're working in the Life Sciences sector for instance, where the assumption of the Alternative hypothesis can indeed impact Human lives, then it will be common to see alphas [the threshold] of 0.01 or lower. On these cases, the researcher needs to decrease the probability of the test statistic being a fluke. On a general sense, the higher the responsibility the researcher faces, the tighter the threshold will be.

A p-value indicates the probability that the observed results occurred by chance, and if this value is below a predefined threshold (usually 0.05), it suggests that the results are statistically significant and unlikely to have happened randomly.

Imagine you're in a courtroom: Assume that a person on trial is innocent. The p-value basically represents the strength of the evidence against the innocence of that person. In this analogy, it’s like the evidence presented in court to prove that the person is guilty. Now If the p-value is very small, it means there's strong evidence against that person, similar to having compelling evidence that the person is guilty. Usually, we have a threshold (like 0.05). If the p-value is below this threshold, we decide to reject the our assumption that person is innocent. If it’s above, we say the person is not convicted due to lack of evidence.

P-Value is important parameter in statistical test for whether a particular experiment is significant or not. In other words, should the outcome of a certain experiment be considered useful? The most common benchmark P-Value is 0.05. If the calculated P-Value is less than 0.05, the outcome of the experiment is considered significant. Otherwise, the outcome is random or by chance. I think the benchmark p-value=0.05 should not be universal. Rather, it be chosen based on the consequences of an experimental outcome being wrong or the degree of uncertainty involve. If the effects of a system is lethal, then you want to choose P-Value so strict that it raises the bar for significance. E.g. P-value of 0.01 could be used as benchmark instead.

A significant p-value does not necessarily imply a large effect or a substantial difference between groups. The p-value measures the probability of observing data as extreme as the sample data under the null hypothesis. While a low p-value suggests that the observed effect is unlikely due to chance, it does not indicate the size of this effect. Effect size, which quantifies the magnitude of the relationship or difference, is essential for understanding practical significance. Large sample sizes can detect very small effects as statistically significant, but these effects might not be meaningful in practice. Therefore, it is crucial to consider both the p-value and the effect size to fully grasp the real-world implications of the findings.

A p-value is a measure that helps us determine whether the results of an experiment or study are likely to have occurred by chance, with a low p-value indicating that the observed results are unlikely to be due to random variation alone.

Bayesian Credible Intervals are more useful and easier to interpret than classical p-values, especially in practical, real-world decision-making contexts. The reason is that a Bayesian Credible Interval provides a range within which we believe the true value of a quantity lies, based on observed data and prior knowledge. It directly answers, "What is the probability that this quantity lies within this range?" This is more intuitive than a p-value, which indicates the probability of obtaining the observed data if a null hypothesis is true - a brainy concept. Furthermore, Bayesian intervals incorporate prior knowledge (including full ignorance) and focus on the metric, making them easier to interpret and more flexible in various situations.

P-value tells only a part of the story - ie. it shows how likely what you conclude is wrong. But there is also the test power which looks at how likely you are to do the right conclusion given that it is actually true.

Well think of it as a rating of a food you have never tasted suggested by your friend. You try the food , you get know the flavour of the food , and set some significance that if it's taste is more than your significance level , your friends' suggestion was dam correct.

The scientific community emphasize the limitations of p-values and advocate for a more nuanced approach to statistical analysis. Critics argue that p-values alone can be misleading and stress the importance of complementary measures such as Bayesian methods, which incorporate prior knowledge and provide a probability of a hypothesis given the data. Additionally, the American Statistical Association (ASA) recommends: Avoiding the "bright-line" threshold; a p-value just below 0.05 isn't drastically different from one just above. Emphasizing effect sizes and confidence intervals. Using p-values in conjunction with other statistical techniques, like Bayesian analysis or likelihood ratios, which offer a more nuanced view of the data.

When interpreting p-values, consider the context of the study, the quality of the data, and other statistical measures. Replication of results and practical significance are equally important. Statistical significance doesn’t always imply real-world relevance, so always pair p-value findings with a comprehensive analysis of the data and its implications. By understanding these basics and considering the broader context, you can make more informed decisions based on statistical results.

Understanding P-value with an Indian Housewife Example Imagine Meera, a housewife, testing if a new brand of atta makes softer chapatis than her usual brand. She conducts a blind taste test with friends rating the softness. The p-value helps determine if the difference is due to the new atta or just by chance. A low p-value (≤ 0.05) indicates a significant difference, suggesting the new atta makes softer chapatis. For instance, a p-value of 0.03 means there's only a 3% chance the difference is random, supporting the new atta's effectiveness. This helps Meera make an informed decision about her chapati ingredients.